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46. Mohammed Kassas
Professor Mohammed Kassas was born July 6, 1921, in the fishing village of Borollos in the Nile Delta. He studied at the University of Cairo and obtained his doctorate in biology at Cambridge. From 1964 to 1968 he lectured in biology at the University of Khartoum in the Sudan. He is assistant director-general of ALESCO, the Arab League Educational Cultural and Scientific Organization. He is vice-chairman of SCOPE, the Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment, a member of the Egyptian Academy of Sciences, and a member of the Club of Rome.
What about the ever-growing population of Egypt?
We represent a present-day textbook example of an overpopulated country. The population of Egypt is increasing at a rate of almost 2.8 percent, which is equal to almost one million a year. In 1973 we added 900,000 persons to our population. In 1850, some hundred years ago, we counted five million people in Egypt. These people were cultivating five million acres of land, or an average of one acre per man. That is why we talk about the good old days. Today, Egypt has forty-five million people cultivating only seven million acres of land, which actually means every Egyptian has less than one-fourth of an acre per head, per capita. This is our situation today and this is why we would have to do two things.
We need to expand as much as we can into the desert. Less than 3 percent of the land area of Egypt is irrigated and cultivated. Ninety-eight percent of our country is desert. This is our situation: We are dry, short of water, and our rivers used to empty two-thirds of our water resources into the sea. Therefore it was only natural that we planned how to conserve some of this
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precious water. That is why we have been building dams and reservoirs ever since the nineteenth century until we built the Aswan Dam to close up the Nile so that it would conserve our total supply of water. We have numerous projects at present to further save water and bring into cultivation as much land as possible in our western desert since this is the only way to help solve our food problems. We need more and more to intensify our agricultural productivity. We need to use ever more advanced scientific methods of production so that we will harvest more and more from this very limited land area. We estimate that Egypt could cultivate, by using all modern means at our disposal, about eight million acres. This would mean that we could only use 3.5 percent of our total land area for food production. The rest is to remain desert.
Forever?
Indeed, forever. There is only one possible exception. That is if mankind would have the good sense to spend enough funds for scientific research on cheap technology for the desalinization of sea water. If the world would really study the problems of turning sea water into fresh water instead of spending all those billions on armaments or space research, we could solve this problem. We could, for instance, conceive of a chain of desalinization stations all along the Mediterranean coasts or along the Red Sea coasts of Egypt. We could be pouring fresh water from the seas into the Egyptian deserts. If this dream would come true, it would mean a breakthrough for our agriculture. And certainly not only for Egypt, but for the entire world.
If such a solution is not found, it eventually means disaster for a country like Egypt. We would have to try even more to develop industry and then try to buy our food from the outside world.
More industry would multiply Egypt's problems.
Yes, but this is the situation. Nations like Egypt have few options to choose from. If the United States discovers another oil field, it has the option either to start developing it or to leave it for future use. The Americans can get oil from elsewhere in the meantime. But if a poor nation, like Egypt, discovers an oil field, a coal mine, or a phosphate mine, it has no option but to develop them. Poor people have little or no choice. The rich nations have all the options: that is one aspect of the present world situation.
What can one do about Egypt's population problem? There are more people and less food in production.
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It is regrettable that the Egyptian government has not come out and stated openly, ‘This is our policy: we are in favor of birth control.’ Except, perhaps, in 1968 or 1969 when some statements to this effect were finally made.
Religion stands opposed. I recall that President Sukarno of Indonesia was very much against birth control, perhaps unwisely so, but on the basis of Islam as well as on the premise that some large islands of Indonesia, with the exception of Java, were underpopulated.
I do not think Islam is opposed in this case. Islam, like most religions, is against the killing of living souls. Islam would certainly be against any form of abortion. But if there were plans for family planning, other than abortion, Islam would have nothing against it. But, in any case, over the past two or three years the population increase in Egypt did drop from 2.8 to 2.4 percent. This means a substantial drop, which is a healthy sign. Also, in the Egyptian villages deep within our country, women are becoming increasingly interested in the process of family planning. Men are not. Men are much more conservative. Women are progressive in Egypt. It is a pleasure to watch the women in rural areas flocking to our family-planning centers. I do not really understand why men resist these needed and useful developments. With men, perhaps, traditional feelings are still standing in the way. But we in Egypt are slowly moving in the right direction in this sector. It will take some more time, because these things cannot be changed overnight. Both government and nongovernment agencies are now working on these problems.
I understand that some 350,000 acres of land will now be irrigated because of the Aswan Dam. But are there ecological aftereffects from this enormous change man has brought about in nature?
In the early 1900's, the water that was entering Egypt at Aswan was, on an average, some 3,000 cubic meters per second. Southern Egypt was using 450 cubic meters per second. In northern Egypt, the entire Nile Delta was using 550 cubic meters per second. Therefore, the total water consumption of Egypt in those days was about 1,000 cubic meters per second, which equaled one-third of the water that was reaching Aswan. Two-thirds of this water, or some 2,100 cubic meters per second, poured into the sea. This was the situation in Egypt prior to building even the first Aswan Dam, in 1903. Then, a series of reservoirs was constructed all along the Nile. The present High Dam is only the last major construction in a long series, the climax in a
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lengthy chain of schemes. Now, the river Nile has been sealed off. Egypt is getting water and this water is irrigating an additional one million acres of land.
How much is this in relation to Egypt's total?
One-sixth. Egypt cultivates six million acres, to put it simply. We are now adding one million. Three-quarter of a million acres of land are irrigated by what we call basin irrigation, in which the harvest represents one crop a year. Our new water reserves enable us to transfer this three-quarter of a million acres of basin-irrigated land into what we call perennially irrigated land, which means we can harvest more than one crop a year.
The High Dam is saving us in many respects. In 1964, the year in which we completed the main structures of the dam, the river flood happened to reach such unprecedented heights that had it not been for the dam the city of Cairo would have been drowned in one or two meters of water. This had never been recorded in the history of the river. In 1964 the High Dam saved Egypt from drowning. In 1972 and 1973, on the contrary, the waters of the Nile reached unprecedented lows comparable only to the lows of 1913. This has occurred only about twice in some one hundred and fifty years.
Did this lack of water relate to the current drought in the Sahel region and in central Africa?
Probably so. The water usually originates in Ethiopia, which is also facing severe drought. If, in 1972 and 1973, it had not been for our High Dam, again, the situation would have meant disaster for Egypt. We would not have had the necessary water to cultivate our lands this year.
Now, when you have a scheme of this magnitude you have to expect a series of by-products. For instance, the question of silt. During the flood season, the Nile used to spread, in July, August, and September, billions of kilograms of silt over the land. This added lots of fertilizer - potassium, phosphorus, and nitrogen - to the land, and improved the structure of the soil itself. It was collected on the banks of the Nile and people would make bricks from it. Almost ninety percent of all building material in Egypt came from there. But the High Dam stopped this constant construction of silt layers. The soil in the fields lost the benefit of this silt stream and the building industry lost its main sources of materials. On the land, we would have to compensate for this loss of silt by adding more fertilizer. This means that Egypt now has to import more and more fertilizer. This did not happen before. But here we are: we now import some three hundred million dollars' worth of fertilizer each year.
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Another factor, I should mention that is caused by switching from basin irrigation to perennial irrigation is the sharp rise in bilharziasis. This infection increased from perhaps one or two percent in the past to sixty or seventy percent. In other words, you increase food productivity by supplying more water and save the lives of a hundred people by solving the problems of hunger, but at the same time you cause death of perhaps five or six people through the spreading of bilharziasis. It seems there is no other way out.
Then there are the questions raised by the so-called Nile Cascade Project. A number of dams are now in construction all the way from the Aswan Dam to Cairo. These dams have to slow down the water coming down toward the sea. Of course, they will provide hydroelectric power and thus supply electricity to villages in those areas. However, the new dams cause additional problems. I myself was born in one of the villages right on the edge of the Nile Delta. When you deprive that entire area from all the silt and water that is now being held up, it means that you are exposing the shoreline of the Nile Delta to erosion by the sea. This is what is happening now. Before 1900 the Nile was building, let us say, one unit of land while the sea, at the same time, was eating away 0.4 of a unit of this land. At present, the sea is still eating away 0.4 of a unit of land, but the river is not building new land anymore. The net result is therefore that the delta shore is receding by about 0.6 of a unit of land per year, and thus the Nile Delta is being eaten up by the sea. This means among other things that villages on the shore line, whether they are fishing villages or summer resorts, are gradually losing parts of their land. Egypt is facing up to this problem. We already have a team of United Nations experts in the field researching this question. We have to find ways to protect the Nile Delta from this constant erosion. It is the more serious because the delta, up to its middle point, is no more than 1.5 meters above sea level. If the coastal areas are further destroyed, then what I describe as manmade marine retrogression will occur. What I mean is this: There are still strips and narrow bars of land that separate the delta from the sea. If these bars, these natural barriers, were to be destroyed, the entire delta would face a grave danger.
In view of the enormous amounts of money needed in Egypt and other African lands for development, perhaps some of the tens of billions of dollars now flowing toward the Arab Gulf states could be recycled toward these goals.
Certainly, steps are being taken through the Arab League and through inter-Arab banking organizations to develop capital that would be available for such purposes - in the Arab world as well as in Africa and Asia. But first
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let me point out to you what agricultural potentials there are in our region of the world. The Sudan alone, if developed properly and systematically, could feed the entire Arab world. Sudan's land is tremendously favorable for agriculture. While I was speaking for Egypt in terms of adding some one or two million acres to its agricultural potential, the Sudan could easily raise its production to over 250 million acres. All it needs is capital investment.
One would be inclined to feel that Arab oil sheikhs should channel their unexpected fortunes into the direction of the Sudan, for instance, instead of becoming nouveau-riche landowners in Kentucky or buying up buildings on the Champs-Elysées.
There are three nations with important agricultural potentials in the Arab world: Sudan, Iraq, and Syria. Of course, Morocco and certain parts of Algeria and Tunisia also possess significant agricultural lands. But, you see, the Sudan, for instance, is underpopulated. It is, furthermore, a poor nation with no capital surplus at all. Machines could compensate here for a shortage of labor. In my own country we have now discovered, for instance, that we have phosphate deposits in the middle of the oasis area of our western desert. They could very well be one of the largest phosphate deposits in the world. But to develop them we would need large-scale investments of development capital. With the present shortage in fertilizer in the world, these phosphate deposits could be very important. But for the next fifty years, Egypt may not have enough capital to begin the exploration of these deposits on our own. Here is a chance indeed for oil money.
Let me turn away from food and agricultural problems and ask you about the flower of the Arab world - your youths. What is their present situation?
Young people in Egypt are harassed by pressures of extreme competition.
No jobs?
Not only no jobs: I am speaking of their life in general. Out of every 174 children going to primary school only one will go to the university.
Why is that?
Because there are no places available. A child at the age of six goes to primary school for six years. Then he passes an exam and moves to a second phase, called intermediate school, which takes three years. Then he goes to another three years of secondary school, gets his baccalaureat or second school certificate. Then he enters the university. During all these phases, there is fierce competition for the limited space available. Last year we had
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175,000 students who obtained a secondary-school certificate. But universities and other higher education facilities had only 50,000 places available to them. What this all means is that boys and girls from the time they enter primary school at the age of six, are engaged in intense competition step by step. This situation surely influences their attitudes.
As in many other countries, in Egyptian society when a man or woman is not a university graduate, he is hardly a truly respected citizen. Of course, this is entirely wrong. I am hardly defending this situation, but the reality is that everyone aspires to enter the university and obtain a degree. But in Egypt today a busdriver often receives better pay than a university graduate. Many of the workers in our new industries are receiving better salaries than university educated persons.
That sounds like the Soviet Union.
That is the situation as it is. Yet, social pressures and factors of prestige continue to urge people to send their children to school, because they still dream of obtaining a university degree. This must be changed. And in some measure it is changing, but much too slowly. Our population is increasing so fast that the social changes needed move too slowly to meet the problems created by more and more people.
And once out of the university, there are no jobs available?
That is true to some extent. Our government has taken the responsibility of giving all university graduates jobs. In practice this means that everyone receives a salary at the end of the month. But it does not mean that everyone receives a job befitting his experience or education. People are technically and professionally employed, that is all.
How could Arab oil money be used to lighten the burdens of Arab youths?
Something could be done about the educational system. The main thing is to create a true process for personal development. We do not need to just hand them money or give them things. We really need to find proper places for our youths in society in order to turn them into productive members of society and not just consumers.
But there are also ‘limits to growth.’
Of course, we can speak of our physical means of development, which are bound to limits to growth. But then there are many social, political, and cultural constraints that are also severely restricting the full development of available resources. And those who have the capital for development do not
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always use the available money as rationally as they should or as we want them to. I often think of the wise man who said that the nineteenth century was the century of the great discoveries in natural history. The twentieth century became the age of the great discoveries in physics: steam, electricity, and nuclear energy. The twenty-first century will become the epoch of great discoveries in human psychology. It will be the era in which we come to understand the brain and the behavior of man.
Could such knowledge save man?
At least then we could understand our actions. Rich people with lots of oil spend their fortunes not on development, but on Rolls-Royces; or worse, on armaments, bombs, and showpiece battleships. If the Arab World would achieve a genuine peace, we would be much more rational in our attitudes and much more rational in the use of resources and capital. Egypt has been spending over the last twenty years an average of one thousand million Egyptian pounds a year. This means that Egypt could have built with this money three Aswan dams every year during those two decades. This is the sad situation. It is irrational, but here we are. That happens when a nation finds itself in a political web and has no option. If I were in the position of the present leadership of Egypt, I would not act differently. What can we do?
Yes, but nations like Bolivia, Peru, and Argentina, to name a few, are not at war, but nonetheless buy for outrageous amounts of money armaments from the rich countries. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute is demonstrating this eloquently in a constant stream of studies and reports.
Indeed, this is the problem.
It is insane.
Of course it is. It is, however, one definite aspect of our modern society. How to understand human actions?
Let us hurry toward the twenty-first century and find out how the brain works.
If we do find out, then we can say that there are no limits.
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