On Growth Two

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5. P.S. Sagdeev

Professor P.S. Sagdeev was born in 1932 in the Soviet Union. He studied physics at the State University of Moscow, and later specialized in plasma physics. At present he is director of the Institute for Space Research of the USSR Academy of Sciences, where this interview was conducted. Professor Sagdeev has published some seventy books.

Toynbee told me that space travel and money spent on journeys to the moon are a waste.

I think that today you cannot demonstrate with a pencil in your hand that Professor Toynbee was right or wrong. The future will have to prove this. But even today one can see that some results of the cosmic era are finding practical applications. It would probably be possible to calculate the economic usefulness of, for instance, the weather service, which is partially based on the use of earth satellites. According to some estimates, which are probably not very reliable, annual savings as a result of man having learned to observe and forecast the weather with the help of a special satellite system amounts to a few billion dollars. In addition, there is an entire range of earth satellites which are of a technically supplementary character. For instance, there are now satellites for navigational purposes. You know that shipping is nowadays almost entirely guided by navigation satellites and that with the help of a relatively simple radio-reply apparatus, which is part of the equipment of almost every ship at sea, it is possible to obtain information from a satellite concerning the position of the ship with a precision of within one hundred meters. In addition, everyone knows that hundreds of millions of people on earth can receive television programs which arrive from the other side of the earth. This, too, was made possible by special American and Russian Molnyja communication satellites. I am convinced that the next ten years will provide a definite answer to Professor Toynbee's remark. Naturally, this question is also receiving the attention of others, first of all those who give all their strength and energy to developing cosmic techniques. Professor Toynbee's anxiety is therefore fully understandable to all those who are engaged in these technical problems. But there are also other

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aspects. There are still questions which are connected with purely fundamental scientific research. Only with the help of scientific equipment that is situated outside the earth's atmosphere is it possible to carry out a whole range of investigations which are quite impossible under conditions prevailing on the surface of the earth. This includes geophysical investigations, the study of the near cosmos, investigations of the solar system, the planets and the moon. And finally, during the last few years, and particularly this year I can safely speak about this - the astronomical investigations of major importance, carried out with the help of telescopes mounted on satellites and rockets.

Can you tell us something more about the plans of the Soviet Union in the field you have just described and about the value that might be derived from more knowledge of the universe obtained by astronomy?

During thousands of years living on the earth, man developed his interests and knowledge. They both expanded qualitatively and quantitatively. This is an endless process. Once upon a time man formulated the laws of nature on the basis of what he saw happening in his immediate environment. Then, gradually, he began to look farther and farther, not only along greater distances, but in a much broader spectrum both in scale and in time. This led to the formulation of new laws, which were deducted from previous ones and widened in scope. By going ever deeper into the realms of space and matter, man can expect to discover new physical phenomena, leading to new and ever widening laws of nature which might very well assist man in extending his abilities and his powers over nature.

This is the basis of our strategic concept when we formulate new plans for our space research. Using both manned and automatically controlled space vehicles, we are now able to place optical telescopes of various sizes, both gamma and X-ray telescopes or any other instruments, in the most favorable position to operate them. This is one way in which we are going to obtain a wealth of qualitatively new information about the universe.

In view of the fact that in the seventies a large percentage of mankind is still without knowledge of the alphabet or of the most elementary facts about the earth, perhaps by broadcasting educational television programs via satellites both from the US and the USSR we might possess a unique means of making humanity at large aware of the reality in which it finds itself approaching in the year 2000.

Naturally, the use of the cosmic communication media, of cosmic television, when seen in the aspect of which you are talking - its educational

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use - is of enormous interest. Here, we should not calculate in terms of thousands of millions of dollars as regards the possible practical applications of our cosmic techniques. I would only stress that our country has a wide experience in this field in connection with the cultural revolution which took place in the USSR during the first years after the October revolution of 1917 when tens of millions or perhaps more than 100 million people who still were unable to read or write learned to do this within a very short time. And today, in our time, if we combine our efforts with the American efforts and if we use at the present level of technology both the American and our own cosmic techniques, it will certainly be possible to assist the underdeveloped countries in this significant way.

In this connection I was struck by the fact that Dr. Boris Petrov stated recently that the priorities in Soviet space research would remain directed at investigations close to our planet by means of automatic space-stations, manned stations in space, and stations in the earth's orbit; in other words, space investigations in the first place for the benefit of mankind?

I would think it correct if our doctrine in the cosmic field were formulated as follows: On the one hand in our flights to the moon, Venus, and Mars, we aim at purely scientific objectives. On the other hand our investigations close to the earth are directed at finding answers to scientific problems and problems whose solutions can find practical application and of which I have already given some examples.

In the future, could space close to the earth be used for the benefit of mankind?

Naturally. In the first place I have talked about meteorological satellites which are used for determining the weather. In addition, I mention stations in space which act as astronomical and geophysical observatories. And, finally, I may add a new direction in space research, which is, that we are also now using the cosmos to study the surface of the earth itself. The importance of this type of space research is best explained that in so doing we have obtained a brand new tool with which to observe our environment, our natural resources, and, in general, the results of all of man's activities on earth. What is called a synoptic, repetitive, and rapid way of observing various phenomena on the surface of the earth now provides scientists, planners of resources, managers or environmental control personnel, and many other specialists with information that was previously unobtainable and which our predecessors never dreamed would be available some day.

Satellites are able to collect data in the most remote places and corners of

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the earth's surface. Thus, we can now establish global monitoring networks for a large variety of observations.

I have no doubt whatsoever that the use of satellites for the purpose of guiding man's activities on earth in one way or another will affect all facets of human life in the future.

Professor Dyson of Princeton University mentioned to me the possibility of planting trees on comets.

In my opinion these are, for the time being, scientific fantasies, science fiction.

Professor Dyson also talked about space travel becoming cheaper. Or was that science fiction too?

This is no longer a question of science fiction but of economics. We will probably be able to give an answer to this question during the next ten years, especially when we have the use of cosmic equipment which can take off from earth many times and always return to earth - the so-called shuttle.

A shuttle is a kind of platform in space?

I am referring to that part of the shuttle program in order to answer the question to what extent it will be economical to take off and to return to earth many times by using the same equipment.

By the time this book is published, Soviet and American astronauts will most likely have achieved a link in space between their space stations. For the first time, as was observed by the New York Times, it will be possible to listen from earth to Soviet and American voices coming from space simultaneously. Could we call the first summit meeting in space?

I do not expect any particularly important scientific discoveries from this first flight. It seems to me that in this first stage our most important task is to show that all technical operations which will be necessary in the future to operate space stations will be possible as routine operations, and that they can be carried out in a quiet, businesslike atmosphere. If this program is continued, flights during the next few years could probably be used for undertaking certain very interesting and possibly even historical scientific experiments.

It is certainly a favorable development from the point of view of a very small country, such as the Netherlands, when scientists of the superpowers aim at closer cooperation.

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As I see it, it would be logical for this cooperation to be continued.

I hesitate to join Professor Dyson in his dance of scientific fantasies of the future, but are you not inclined to believe that man might be able to live on other planets?

One of the major problems is that of weightlessness. As the last few prolonged flights have shown, first by Soviet cosmonauts and now by the Americans, particularly in Skylab, it will be possible to combat weightlessness. But there is also a whole range of other problems that have not yet been solved and, in my opinion, we are still far from finding ways of transferring life to other planets or of creating conditions for prolonged stays on other planets or in the cosmos in general. This difficulty may be with us for a long time.

American scientific circles are wondering, for instance, if it would be economically justified to build large cities in space?

Such questions are, of course, being considered, but only from a point of view of science fiction. Looking at the problem realistically, we would first like to see how our American colleagues will solve an earthly problem such as their diminishing energy reserves.

The New York Times of April 14, 1972, stated that your country is launching three times as many spaceships as the Americans. How is the average reader of the Times to interpret this kind of information?

It appears to me that this is a question of strategical nature. You can make one rocket and put as much money into it as you would need for making three rockets. And with some degree of probability the three rockets may yield certain scientific results. Up to the present it has not yet become clear which method is the best, to make one very expensive rocket or three cheap ones.

A reaction of the reader of the Times to this news item was: What are the Soviets doing in space? Are they ahead? Are we far behind? What is your opinion when you compare the programs of the USA and those of the USSR?

The problem that plays the most important part for a scientist in planning his work is not who is ahead or who is behind. It is in the nature of science to develop itself over a wide range of problems, sometimes on a parallel course and sometimes on a conflicting course with colleagues elsewhere. But, mostly, scientists complement each other's investigations. It is quite a common situation that one scientist or team of scientists is ahead in one field, while colleagues have forged ahead in other branches of a cer-

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tain science. The main point is to have a free exchange of results and findings that were obtained in the course of research everywhere. I am fully confident that scientific progress in our respective countries, the US and the USSR, will be influenced strongly by each other's accomplishments and findings. After all, success on the one side will mean success for the other side, because is it not so that in essence science and research is one indivisible entity?

Your space research is also concentrated, I think, on the search for a new perspective in the physical processes emanating from the energy of the sun. Has this research anything to do with the way in which energy may, in the future, be obtained from sunlight?

We have a special program devoted to the study of the processes that are taking place on the sun and their influence on the outer atmosphere of the earth - its climate and weather. The program consists of special satellites with high-apogee orbits, which means that they travel some tens of thousands of kilometers away from the earth. We launch such satellites once or twice a year. They are equipped with an apparatus for registering the changes which take place on the sun's surface. We study, for instance, solar explosions and the radiation from these explosions. There is also equipment on board for the direct registration of processes taking place in the outer atmosphere of the earth after these explosions occurred.

Will man be able to succeed in obtaining energy from the heat of the sun in the near future?

In a way we are already using the energy from the sun today by means of sun batteries which collect part of the light energy rendered by the sun. What other examples can we mention? Once again, at a purely science fiction level some other possibilities are being considered by Professor Hannes Alfven from Sweden. The sun radiates energy not only in the form of light, but by producing large currents of plasma in space. These currents create something like a solar wind. One idea is to make with the help of a spaceship a kind of sail which might be ‘fed’ by the energy of the current produced by solar wind. But the density of this solar wind is very low, so the sail has to have a very large surface. We might call it a sail for using the electromagnetic fields. If it was possible to collect the energy of the solar wind, it would also be possible to use the necessary energy for distant interplanetary flights.

Our Academy of Science has a special council which occupies itself with the problem of utilizing solar energy. This problem involves the concentration of large amounts of sunlight with the help of special mirrors. There are

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also small sun-batteries made in serial production. They can be used in places such as mountains, in southern regions where there is a great deal of sunlight, or where there are no other sources of energy available. It is possible to set up these small installations in such places. In fact, there are installations already in existence used by expeditions and by shepherds looking after herds of cattle in the mountains. Installations are also made for the desalinization of salt water, for instance, or in places where we have salt water lakes. Some scientific institutes in Central Asia are working on this problem.

Is it your impression that the current energy crisis has become a permanent problem facing mankind?

I think the problems that have recently arisen are temporary and that the serious difficulties will only arrive in some twenty or thirty years. It is clear that it will be necessary to solve the problems that are connected with the use of nuclear energy, and this will have to be done in entirely different ways from what has been done so far. The sources of nuclear energy will have to become our main sources of energy in the future. The question that is being considered at present is, Which of the two kinds of nuclear reactors will predominate? Will it be the breeder reactor or the fission reactor? Or will it be the reactor which is based on fusion? At the moment it is hard to give an answer to this question. At least another ten years will probably be needed before the final answer can be given. At the moment the breeder is probably the best answer to our requirements, but up to now there has not been a single experimental reactor that has been in operation for a sufficiently long time. The next five years may also show that a thermonuclear reactor meeting all the requirements can be built, although there are still many difficulties to be resolved.

Are young people in the Soviet Union interested in astrophysics; do they choose the study of space exploration in significant numbers?

Yes, astrophysics enjoys a warm interest among our students, and lectures given by well-known astrophysicists always draw large audiences. Just as, let us say, some thirty years ago nuclear physics attracted the students' interest to a large degree.

I should like to say a few words on the question as to why scientists consider it important that astrophysics receive our attention. This question has two main aspects, one of which is philosophical. It goes back to our ancestors, to whom it never really occurred that by looking at the stars they would receive information useful to mankind, but who simply asked

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themselves: What is happening out there? This philosophy was best expressed by Henry Poincaré when he said that when looking at the stars through a telescope, man sees what is happening on the stars. He begins to understand his own size and feels how small our globe is and how large and grand the cosmos is. The second reason for our deep interest is ultimately, of course, of a certain practical nature. Nowadays, every year - or perhaps I might even say every week - we are faced with a new discovery in the field of astrophysics. It appears that there are new cosmic objects that are displaying completely incomprehensible characteristics. We may therefore ask ourselves whether among the new cosmic objects which we are discovering all the time there may not be some kind of object that cannot be explained in terms of the laws of physics discovered here on earth. There may be cosmic bodies in which there are entirely new forms of energy and physical processes at work and in which gigantic amounts of energy are produced. After all, a few years before the actual laboratory work was begun, it was astrophysics from which the conclusion was drawn that thermonuclear reactions do exist. The well-known conclusion regarding the necessity of the existence of thermonuclear reactions out among the stars was drawn particularly from the conclusions of astrophysics, although even before this, astronomers had come to the conclusion that fuels such as coal would not be sufficient for maintaining the extreme heat of the stars for many thousands of millions of years. Accordingly, the question arose whether there could not be some energy source similar in strength to that of nuclear energy. In the same way it is quite probable that astrophysics will now give us some new information which may also prove to be useful practically, although perhaps only after many years.

In 1971 a conference was organized to discuss signals coming from other planets.

This conference was dedicated to the question whether it was, in principle, possible to look for signals coming from other intelligent civilizations, and if so, in what form. But the question as to whether there have been signals has not yet been seriously discussed.

And what about flying saucers?

We have read reports about them in newspapers.

What is your own chief interest in space travel?

I used to work in research connected with the problem of controlled thermonuclear reactions. The work in this field is taking place in laboratories

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on special installations in which very large magnetic fields are used to create a very hot, dense matter called plasma. The object is to achieve temperatures of 100 million degrees, at which thermonuclear reactions become possible. Up to now, scientists have reached, in their laboratories, lower temperatures of around, let us say, twenty million degrees. These are now being studied at special installations. While studying certain characteristics of plasma in such installations, I gradually became interested in the question of whether it might be possible to reconstruct, to create conditions which we find in cosmic plasma with the help of analogous installations in laboratories. A number of this kind of activities are going on in our institute. The experiments simulate the process taking place in special aerodynamic tubes, tubes in which a hot current of air is blown along models of various types, let us say, wings. In the same way a current of plasma, instead of air, is blown through special tubes at very high speeds - some hundreds of kilometers per second. However, the object around which the plasma is flowing is not the wing of an airplane or a complete airplane, but a cosmic body, such as, for instance, the earth surrounded by its own magnetic field, the moon, and so on. In so doing it became possible to find a mass of analogous details and to transfer the standards and methods that had been developed in the field of thermonuclear synthesis to the phenomena of cosmic plasma. It also became possible to compare these phenomena with the observations which were obtained from earth satellites and cosmic rockets.