Judging from the results of the bye-elections, I think it is fairly certain that the Labour Party will be the largest of the three parties. It may possibly obtain a majority, because in an election contest the tendency is for a general sweep in one extreme direction or the other. The likelihood, however, is that the Liberal Party will have the balance of power. Somewhat hesitatingly I give the following estimate of the strength of the parties af ter the election: -
Labour 280. Conservative 265. Liberal 70.
Under these conditions, the Conservative Government would almost certainly be defeated in an early division of importance and would then resign. The problem of who will take office will then arise. In the somewhat similar conditions in 1923, the Labour Party took office without any understanding with the Liberals, but the Liberals have now indicated that they will not be prepared to support a Labour Government without a definite understanding regarding its programme.
On the other hand, the feeling against an agreement with the Liberals is so strong within the British Labour Movement that it will be very difficult for a Labour Government to enter into an open alliance. It is probable that the Labour Government will outline a policy which the Liberals will consider satisfactory and that they will accept it without any formal agreement; but even then the likelihood is that an occasion will arise before long, as in 1924, when the Liberals will feel impelled to vote with the Tories, and thus bring about the defeat of the Labour Government.
A second early election is therefore likely, in which there would be a fierce struggle between the two dominant parties - the Conservatives and Labour. In that struggle the Liberals will probably disappear as a vital electoral force.
What kind of programme will the Labour Government attempt? It will certainly not be revolutionary. In foreign affairs its influence will undoubtedly be exerted, as it was in 1924, to reconcile Europe. A strong effort would be made to end the Rhineland occupation, and I think the British Troops would be withdrawn even if France and Belgium retained theirs. The Russian Government would be recognised and facilities given for Russian trade, though a very strong line would be taken against the propaganda of the Third International within the British Empire, on the ground that such propaganda is really that of the Russian Government itself. The principles of the Protocol would be revived, though probably in some new form, emphasising arbitration and disarmament rather than security. A big effort would be made to reach agreement with America on naval disarmament and, whilst the retention of Anglo-French friendship would be desired, British influence would no longer be behind France in its anti-German policy. The eight-hour day convention of the I.L.O. would be ratified, and a strenuous attempt made to raise International Labour standards.
Labour's Empire Policy would be in the opposite direction to that of the Conservative Party, but wold nevertheless be cautious. Labour is pledged, for example, to extend Dominion Status to India, but it is doubtful whether it would act before the report of the Simon Commission is published, and, even then, there are likely to be qualifications of the self-government extended. Negotiations would be commenced with Egypt on the principle of its independence, but once again there are likely to be qualifications for military purposes and to safeguard the position of the Sudan. In the Colonial territories where there is at present no responsible machinery of self-government, a Labour Colonial Secretary would probably begin to give the natives some representative and administrative status and extend educational facilities; but this would be done with great caution.
In its social policy the Labour Government would probably begin by ameliorative measures to improve the conditions in the depressed industries and to relieve unemployment. The school leaving age would be raised and aged workers would be pensioned, thus providing more employment for those of working age. It is possible that mines' nationalisation would be introduced and also the nationalisation of agricultural land as the basis of a scheme for agricultural recovery. But, generally speaking, the programme would be reformist and would not